3105 SE Covenant #48 · Grimes, IA 50111

$32,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a basketball court, a clubhouse, and community events, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Basketball court
• Community events

Tags

• BASKETBALL COURT
• CLUBHOUSE
• COMMUNITY EVENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3105 SE Covenant #48, Grimes, IA 50111; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-12
• Financial info: List price $32,300

Exterior

• Utilities: Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-level living area of 1216; Spec new-construction plan 92098

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $33k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 40.0% vs local median 2.3% in Grimes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#106 in IA, #2,080 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston Community School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #24 of 289 in IA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 327 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $227 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $984 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $31,816 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 120.29%
• DSCR: 6.35
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $50,072
• Equity at exit: $4,891

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.58×
• Total profit: $106,372
• Equity at exit: $2,836

Cash invested: $9,184 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50111

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$172
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $287

Max offer price $32,800

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,200
• Closing costs: $984
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10535 Norfolk Dr Johnston, IA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1099	$1,395	$1.27	43d	1	0.78mi
6030 Bremen Ct #13 Johnston, IA	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,195	$1.18	43d	1	0.80mi
10516 Dorset Dr Unit 23 Johnston, IA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,290	$1.30	43d	1	0.81mi
10320 Norfolk Dr #4 Johnston, IA	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	23d	1	0.83mi
10509 Dorset Dr Unit 6120-01 Johnston, IA	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,225	$1.21	43d	1	0.85mi
10509 Dorset Dr Unit 6000-23 Johnston, IA	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,440	$1.20	43d	1	0.85mi
10509 Dorset Dr Unit 6100-08 Johnston, IA	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,490	$1.24	43d	1	0.85mi
10509 Dorset Dr Unit 6120-23 Johnston, IA	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,175	$1.16	43d	1	0.85mi
10457 Dorset Dr Unit 22 Johnston, IA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,290	$1.30	43d	1	0.87mi
10457 Dorset Dr Unit 11 Johnston, IA	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,495	$1.15	43d	1	0.87mi
10425 Dorset Dr Unit 11 Johnston, IA	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,495	$1.15	43d	1	0.90mi
10301 Dorset Dr Unit 01 Johnston, IA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,340	$1.35	43d	1	0.93mi
1250 SE 11th St Grimes, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	921	$1,487	$1.61	14d	15	1.17mi
9577 White Oak Ln Johnston, IA	2.0	2.0	970	$1,264	$1.30	14d	4	1.22mi
935 SE Silkwood Ln Grimes, IA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,436	$1.57	14d	27	1.27mi
10141 Sutton Dr Urbandale, IA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,150	$1.33	43d	1	1.37mi
301 SE 11th St #706 Grimes, IA	2.0	2.5	1144	$1,750	$1.53	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,800 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,800 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,800 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,800 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,800 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,800 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $32,800 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,800 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,800 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,800 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $32,800 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $32,800 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,800 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $32,800 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,300 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,300 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $32,300 Active 516-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,837
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$954
• Taxable income: $11,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,686
• After-tax cash flow: $8,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is ready for a new owner. It features a good exterior, clean interior, and well-maintained landscaping. Minor updates to the exterior, interior, and systems can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Fresh flooring can improve the home's appearance and add value for both resale and rental.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's appeal and value for both resale and rental.
• Both HVAC maintenance or replacement — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Community amenities maintenance — Well-maintained community amenities can enhance the overall living experience and attract more residents to the neighborhood.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Fresh flooring can improve the home's appearance and add value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's appeal and value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance or replacement — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Community amenities maintenance — Well-maintained community amenities can enhance the overall living experience and attract more residents to the neighborhood. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915450
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $85,758
• Composite: 69.43/100
• National rank: #309
• State rank: #24 of 289 in IA

Livability — Grimes

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #2080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grimes, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 16,865
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 16,865
• Household income: $120,769
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 249.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 548,042 people
• By 2030: 588,557 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 670,629 · +22.4%
• By 2050: 752,830 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 955,069 · +74.3%
• By 2100: 1,115,436 · +103.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 54.8% · R 43.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.7pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+11.5 2012: D+14.2 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.93%
• Current HPI: 249.0614
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.71%
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B