19220 NE 25th Ave Unit 271B

Ojus, FL 33180

$415,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Pending · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,093/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$1,118
• HOA: −$898
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,070
• Net cashflow: $-169/mo
• Annual: $-2,026/yr
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.66%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (5.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $415k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $378k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in FL, #1,031 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Virginia A Boone-Highland Oaks School (math 50% / reading 60%, grade C, #872 of 2,144 statewide, top 42%, 600 students, 40% FRL); Highland Oaks Middle School (math 28% / reading 51%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 774 students, 50% FRL); Dr. Michael M. Krop Senior High (math 21% / reading 46%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 2,235 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 64% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 998 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $415k implies a 493% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,093/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 1838% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?