90 San Juan Dr Unit B204

Marineland, FL 32137

$274,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,463 sqft · Built 2002 · Condo · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,975/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$453
• HOA: −$600
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $-145/mo
• Annual: $-1,737/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (9.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#886 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Old Kings Elementary School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 979 students, 52% FRL); Indian Trails Middle School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,518 students, 50% FRL); Matanzas High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,978 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1616 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 12395% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $179k; list at $275k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.8% in Marineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?