4978 Mullette Ln

St. James City, FL 33956

$142,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,420/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax + insurance: −$608
• HOA: −$160
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-390/mo
• Annual: $-4,681/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.10%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $39,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $73k (48.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $142k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (48.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Island Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 236 students, 45% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.