4978 Mullette Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$142,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1987 4,007 sqft lot Est $127k · 12% over $160/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pine Island Cove Best Buy! Off water home in 55+ community where residents own their own land! Relax on the enclosed lanai which has vinyl windows and a partial view of the lake. Offers community boat ramp with direct Gulf access. On site heated pool, shuffleboard, bocce ball, community picnic area, clubhouse, RV & boat storage. Reasonable HOA fees only $60/month.

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• New shower
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW SHOWER
• MINI-SPLIT A C SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed conditionally (up to 2 — contact for details)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $160 monthly fee; Association covers road maintenance, sewer, street lights and trash; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, boat dock, boat ramp, bocce court, pickleball, park, dog park, picnic/barbecue areas, library, RV/boat storage, storage, vehicle wash area and trash service; Non-gated senior community with street lights and boat facilities; 312 units in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Attached carport (1 space); Driveway (paved)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home with aluminum siding; Single-story; Entry at level 1; Faces south; Resale property; Has view
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; North exposure; Rectangular lot; Private paved road frontage; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ceiling fan(s); Wall unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Furnished; Kitchen island; Pantry; Living/dining room; Workshop; Shower only (separate shower); Walk-in closet(s); Single-hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-659/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (6.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Island Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 236 students, 45% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,296 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.22%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,720
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7261 Drum Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	768 (0%)	14mo	$100,000	$130	79
4940 Pinfish Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	862 (+12%)	2mo	$142,500	$165	69
4868 Flamingo Dr	0.49mi	2/1.5	864 (+12%)	1mo	$95,000	$110	53
4873 Curlew Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0	840 (+9%)	8mo	$180,000	$214	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-26,155
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-25,841
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,845 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,463/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,914

Max offer price $132,296

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-15	+0% $-55	+5% $-95	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-128	+0% $-55	+5% $18	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-19	base $-55	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7150 Cobiac Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	826	$1,950	$2.36	25d	1	0.08mi
4944 Porky Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	831	$1,600	$1.93	25d	1	0.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $142,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $142,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $142,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $142,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-03-28
    listed $142,000 Active
14. 2020-08-17
    soldstatus $106,000
15. 2020-06-11
    historical
16. 2020-05-22
    price $115,000
17. 2019-12-11
    listed $119,000 Active
18. 2011-09-01
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 2011-08-30
    soldstatus $65,000 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Pine Island Cove Best Buy! Off water home in 55+ community where residents own their own land! Relax on the enclosed lanai which has vinyl windows and a partial view of the lake. Offers community boat ramp with direct Gulf access. On site heated pool, shuffleboard, bocce ball, community picnic area, clubhouse, RV & boat storage. Reasonable HOA fees only $60/month.

20. 2001-12-18
    soldstatus $58,500
21. 1997-10-16
    soldstatus $39,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$1,463
• − Insurance: −$5,828
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable loss: −$2,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$648
• After-tax cash flow: $-11/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+259.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $142,000 FORTMLS
• 2020-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-11 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2020-05-22 Price Changed $115,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-12-11 Listed $119,000 FORTMLS
• 2011-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-30 Sold (MLS) $65,000 FORTMLS
• 2001-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 1997-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,463 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.