5621 Picadilly Circus Cir

Gautier, MS 39553

$159,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 962 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 297 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,376/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $83/mo
• Annual: $999/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($999/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (13.4% below list).
• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#89 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Pascagoula-Gautier School District (urban): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #41 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Martin Bluff (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #122 of 375 statewide, top 34%, 402 students, 100% FRL); Gautier Middle School (math 53% / reading 37%, grade D, #43 of 179 statewide, top 24%, 423 students, 100% FRL); Gautier High School (math 55% / reading 42%, grade D, #26 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 901 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 78% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Gautier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.