5621 Picadilly Circus Cir · Gautier, MS 39553

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 297 Days on market

Built 1975 10,018 sqft lot Est $123k · 29% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1 1/2 -bath home with a large living room that's perfect for entertaining. Features include new flooring and fresh paint. Move-in ready and full of charm—just bring your furniture and start enjoying your new space! SOLD AS!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 297 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year from public records)
• Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($999/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Gautier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#89 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Pascagoula-Gautier School District (urban): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #41 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Martin Bluff (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #122 of 375 statewide, top 34%, 402 students, 100% FRL); Gautier Middle School (math 53% / reading 37%, grade D, #43 of 179 statewide, top 24%, 423 students, 100% FRL); Gautier High School (math 55% / reading 42%, grade D, #26 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 901 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 78% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,630 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,136
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1637 Victoria Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	988 (+3%)	6mo	$126,000	$128	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-20,501
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,178
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39553

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,248/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $128	+0% $83	+5% $38	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $29	+0% $83	+5% $138	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $124	base $83	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $0

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1625 Martin Bluff Rd Gautier, MS	2.0	1.5	1099	$1,100	$1.00	23d	2	0.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,000 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 288 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 285 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 284 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 283 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 278 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 277 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 276 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    price $159,000
17. 2025-08-28
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,256 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,248
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $1,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pascagoula-Gautier School District
• NCES district ID: 2803480
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,392
• Composite: 32.86/100
• National rank: #5613
• State rank: #41 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gautier

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #11250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gautier, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 17,225
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 17,225
• Household income: $57,460
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.77%
• Current HPI: 209.1746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $159,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-28 Listed $165,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,248 · +18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.