1406 A Hidden Valley Dr

Robinson, PA 15019

$72,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $889/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$575
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-377/mo
• Annual: $-4,520/yr
• Cap rate: 0.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.15%
• DSCR: 0.01
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $20,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-377 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $18k (74.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($889 rent vs $73k).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (74.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($504 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,651 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Fort Cherry SD (rural): math 34% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #213 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fort Cherry El Ctr (math 41% / reading 63%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 455 students, 46% FRL); Fort Cherry Jshs (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #196 of 437 statewide, top 47%, 450 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 65% of rent.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 0.1% vs local median 3.4% in Robinson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 75% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.