1406 A Hidden Valley Dr · Robinson, PA 15019

$72,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 145 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Good condition $63/sqft · 24% below area Est $96k · 24% under $575/mo HOA · 70% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.3

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home! Nestled in a serene neighborhood, this stunning 2025 manufactured home offers the perfect blend of modern style and ultimate convenience. With its sleek lines and contemporary design, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom abode is not just a place to live, but a lifestyle to embrace. Convenience is paramount in this home, as it features energy-efficient systems and low-maintenance materials, allowing you to spend more time enjoying life and less time on upkeep.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 144 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $10k (86.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($816 rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (86.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate -0.8% vs local median 3.3% in Robinson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,651 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Fort Cherry SD (rural): math 34% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #213 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fort Cherry El Ctr (math 41% / reading 63%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 455 students, 46% FRL); Fort Cherry Jshs (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #196 of 437 statewide, top 47%, 450 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($504 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 70% of rent.

Recommended offer $10,120 (86.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 86% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: -0.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.51%
• DSCR: -0.13
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,500
• List price: $72,900
• Delta: -23.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1320 Hidden Valley Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+7%)	14mo	$27,000	$22	71
1340 Hilltop Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+30%)	4mo	$95,500	$64	68
1302 Hidden Valley Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-17%)	16mo	$50,400	$53	51
1304 Hidden Valley Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-17%)	16mo	$55,900	$58	51
1053 Valleyview Rd	0.83mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+4%)	53mo	$525,000	$438	33
1170 Robinson Hwy	2.05mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+18%)	52mo	$243,000	$179	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-16,182
• Equity at exit: $35,229

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-21,148
• Equity at exit: $56,279

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active
• Median asking: $74,900 ($67/sqft)
• Median days on market: 145 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 15019

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$575
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $10,120

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-383	-5% $-409	+0% $-434	+5% $-459	+10% $-484
Rent	-10% $-498	-5% $-466	+0% $-434	+5% $-402	+10% $-369
Rate	-1.0pp $-397	-0.5pp $-415	base $-434	+0.5pp $-453	+1.0pp $-472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $72,900 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $72,900 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $72,900 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $72,900 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $72,900 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $72,900 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $72,900 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $72,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $72,900 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $72,900 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $72,900 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $72,900 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $72,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $72,900 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $72,900 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $72,900 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $72,900 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $72,900 Active 123 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $72,900 Active 122 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $72,900 Active 121 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $72,900 Active 120 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $72,900 Active 119 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $72,900 Active 118 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $72,900 Active 117 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $72,900 Active 116 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $72,900 Active 115 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $72,900 Active 113 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $72,900 Active 112 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $72,900 Active 111 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    pricedays on market $72,900 Active 109 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 108 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 107 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 106 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $74,900 Active 105 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $74,900 Active 104 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $74,900 Active 103 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $74,900 Active 102 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $74,900 Active 100 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $74,900 Active 98 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $74,900 Active 97 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $74,900 Active 94 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $74,900 Active 93 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $74,900 Active 92 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $74,900 Active 91 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $74,900 Active 89 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $74,900 Active 85 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 84 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 83 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,900 Active 80 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$784
• − Management: −$784
• − HOA: −$6,900
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable loss: −$6,333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,760–$17,280 screening

This 2025 manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fort Cherry El Ctr C- PA #586/1,518 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 High Fort Cherry Jshs F PA #196/437 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Cherry SD
• NCES district ID: 4209960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,129
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3564
• State rank: #213 of 539 in PA

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Robinson

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1651
• US rank: #22918

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Washington · 208,060 people
• City population: 727
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 1,236
• Household income: $38,092
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own

---

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,060 people
• By 2030: 207,168 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 202,738 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 195,269 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 175,588 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 145,827 · -29.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Danish 6% Romanian 5% Serbian 3%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.9% · R 62.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.7pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+22.8 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.3 2008: R+4.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.59%
• Current HPI: 175.8946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $74,900 West Penn MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $74,900 West Penn MLS