479 S Settlers Way

Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$50,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Active · 578 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $461/mo
• Annual: $5,527/yr
• Cap rate: 17.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.48%
• DSCR: 2.76
• 1% rule: 1.98%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($988 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 578 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $88 of equity ($346 loan paydown + $-258 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $50k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 578 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.