479 S Settlers Way · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 578 Days on market

Built 2003 7,440 sqft lot $69/sqft · 25% above area Est $40k · 25% over $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a serene wooded setting, this income-producing property offers a unique opportunity for both immediate returns and future potential. The spacious, unrestricted lot provides endless possibilities for expansion or customization, all while enjoying the privacy and charm of the natural surroundings. This home includes upgrades, new wiring, PEX water lines, and updated kitchen appliances, enhance its appeal. Conveniently located just minutes from Sebastopol, TX, and the beautiful Trinity River, this property strikes the perfect balance of seclusion and accessibility. Explore the endless possibilities this versatile property has to offer—schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• 7,440 sq ft lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 577 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($988 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $88 of equity ($346 loan paydown + $-258 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 578 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $50k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 578 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.48%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,900
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 25.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $26,670
• Equity at exit: $13,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $66,227
• Equity at exit: $14,927

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $327/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $405

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 578 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 577 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 576 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 575 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 574 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 572 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 571 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 569 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 568 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 567 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 566 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 563 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 561 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 560 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 559 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 558 DOM
17. 2024-11-18
    listed $63,500 Active 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Nestled in a serene wooded setting, this income-producing property offers a unique opportunity for both immediate returns and future potential. The spacious, unrestricted lot provides endless possibilities for expansion or customization, all while enjoying the privacy and charm of the natural surroundings. This home includes upgrades, new wiring, PEX water lines, and updated kitchen appliances, enhance its appeal. Conveniently located just minutes from Sebastopol, TX, and the beautiful Trinity River, this property strikes the perfect balance of seclusion and accessibility. Explore the endless possibilities this versatile property has to offer—schedule your private tour today!

18. 2024-11-13
    historical
19. 2024-09-11
    price $65,000
20. 2024-05-22
    price $74,900
21. 2024-04-19
    listed $80,000 Active
22. 2023-05-05
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2023-04-04
    status Pending
24. 2023-03-31
    status Option Pending
25. 2023-03-24
    price $45,000
26. 2023-02-14
    listed $50,000 Active
27. 2023-02-14
    historical
28. 2023-02-01
    listed $50,000 Active
29. 2022-04-27
    historical
30. 2022-02-16
    listed $75,000 Active
31. 2005-10-18
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $327 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$588/yr (+$49/mo · 180.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$327
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,011
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,203
• After-tax cash flow: $4,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groveton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821900
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,375
• Composite: 37.76/100
• National rank: #4348
• State rank: #281 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+353.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-18 Listed $63,500 HARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2024-04-19 Listed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-04-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-24 Price Changed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-14 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-01 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-02-16 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2005-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $327 · -23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.