126 Creek Bend St

Potosi, TX 79602

$237,990B+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,923 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,225/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax + insurance: −$677
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $623/mo
• Annual: $7,481/yr
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.23%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $66,637

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $238k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#398 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie West Int (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #283 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 459 students, 24% FRL); Wylie West J H (math 62% / reading 58%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 972 students, 24% FRL); Wylie H S (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 1,467 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 103d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.2% in Potosi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.