126 Creek Bend St · Potosi, TX 79602

$237,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,923 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot 2-car garage $124/sqft · 45% below area Est $362k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21319794 - Built by NHC - Nov 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 B1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals and family time.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $238k).
• Recommended offer: $231k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.2% in Potosi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#398 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie West Int (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #283 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 459 students, 24% FRL); Wylie West J H (math 62% / reading 58%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 972 students, 24% FRL); Wylie H S (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 1,467 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 621 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 103d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.23%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,109
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -34.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 Crooked Creek Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (-6%)	2mo	$364,900	$201	75
114 Bell St	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,060 (+7%)	3mo	$425,000	$206	74
111 Bell St	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,095 (+9%)	0mo	$465,000	$222	73
126 Bell St	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,058 (+7%)	3mo	$430,000	$209	72
115 Cessna Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,022 (+5%)	5mo	$404,000	$200	70
117 Gulfstream	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,046 (+6%)	2mo	$475,000	$232	70
106 Cessna Ct	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,812 (-6%)	9mo	$415,000	$229	64
128 Hawker Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,073 (+8%)	0mo	$428,900	$207	61
244 Beechcraft Rd	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,163 (+12%)	2mo	$449,000	$208	59
152 Hawker Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,067 (+8%)	4mo	$425,000	$206	56
136 Cessna Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,650 (-14%)	9mo	$325,000	$197	55
231 Long Ranger St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,727 (-10%)	7mo	$350,000	$203	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $18,406
• Equity at exit: $35,485

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $145,630
• Equity at exit: $20,577

Cash invested: $66,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 1.1 mo (89%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $462,800 ($214/sqft)
• Median days on market: 57 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -12.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$577 /mo · $6,928/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,436

Max offer price $237,990

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $691	+0% $623	+5% $556	+10% $489
Rent	-10% $369	-5% $496	+0% $623	+5% $751	+10% $878
Rate	-1.0pp $743	-0.5pp $684	base $623	+0.5pp $562	+1.0pp $499

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,498
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Bell St Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1925	$3,500	$1.82	76d	1	0.28mi
246 Foxtrot Ln Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1891	$2,850	$1.51	102d	1	0.98mi
1051 Todd Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,895	$1.63	70d	1	1.02mi
1896 Piddle Paddle Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1289	$3,000	$2.33	108d	1	1.20mi
331 Hog Eye Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,895	$1.88	89d	1	1.22mi
914 Key Ln Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1532	$3,000	$1.96	139d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association (association type: None)If applicable, association maintains grounds; fees assessed annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spacesGarage faces front
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNo municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo-storyNew construction (incomplete; year built: 2025)
• Construction: Siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot (approximately 0.10 acre)Subdivision: Waterside at Cedar Creek

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 2, three additional bedrooms on level 2)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenPantry7 rooms total1 living area1 dining areaTwo levels

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $237,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $237,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $237,990 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $237,990 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $237,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $237,990 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $237,990 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $237,990 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   status $237,990 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-07-29
    status $237,990 Pending 25 DOM
11. 2026-07-27
    days on market $237,990 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-07-25
    days on market $237,990 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-07-24
    days on market $237,990 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-07-23
    days on market $237,990 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-07-22
    days on market $237,990 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-07-21
    days on market $237,990 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $237,990 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $237,990 Active 14 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $237,990 Active 13 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $237,990 Active 12 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $237,990 Active 11 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $237,990 Active 10 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $237,990 Active 9 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $237,990 Active 8 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $237,990 Active 7 DOM
26. 2026-07-08
    days on market $237,990 Active 6 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $237,990 Active 5 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $237,990 Active 4 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $237,990 Active 3 DOM
30. 2026-07-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 2 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    remarks 693-char remark
32. 2026-07-02
    listed $237,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,928 · $577/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,928 · $577/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,331
• − Property taxes: −$6,928
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,096
• − Management: −$3,096
• − Depreciation: −$6,923
• Taxable income: $4,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$993
• After-tax cash flow: $6,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,615–$28,845 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has the potential to be a move-in-ready property with minor updates to the exterior and interior to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring — Upgrading to higher-end flooring can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wylie West El Middle Wylie West J H B TX #158/1,662 Nat'l #1,793/14,009 High Wylie H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Potosi

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #8264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Potosi, TX
• County: Taylor County · 145,270 people
• City population: 26,588
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association (association type: None)If applicable, association maintains grounds; fees assessed annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spacesGarage faces front
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNo municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo-storyNew construction (incomplete; year built: 2025)
• Construction: Siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot (approximately 0.10 acre)Subdivision: Waterside at Cedar Creek

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 2, three additional bedrooms on level 2)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenPantry7 rooms total1 living area1 dining areaTwo levels

Price history

+25.3% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-02 Listed $237,990 NTREIS
• 2023-10-25 Rental Removed $2,450 Avail
• 2023-10-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-10-17 Price Changed $2,450 Avail
• 2023-10-12 Price Changed $2,600 Avail
• 2023-10-11 Price Changed $2,500 Avail
• 2023-10-06 Listed for Rent $2,700 Avail
• 2023-09-19 Listed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-06-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-06-05 Price Changed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-31 Price Changed $430,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-11 Price Changed $440,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-21 Price Changed $445,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-24 Listed $450,000 NTREIS
• 2018-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-04-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-03-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-03-19 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2016-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-12-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-11-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-11-16 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-11-12 Listed $259,900 NTREIS
• 2015-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-04-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-04-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-04-01 Listed $229,500 NTREIS
• 2010-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-08-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-07-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-06-05 Listed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2003-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,928 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.