9811 Bud St

Hudson, FL 34669

$279,999D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Active · 520 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,076/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-40/mo
• Annual: $-475/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-475/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (25.8% below list).
• It's been on market 520 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Primary Academy (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 647 students, 90% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $280k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 520 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.