9811 Bud St · Hudson, FL 34669

$279,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Manufactured public records · 520 Days on market

Built 2020 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention All Handymen and Investors! Great Income Potential and a true fixer upper. This 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom manufactured home is located on an ideal piece of property. Fenced in on a 1/2 acre corner lot that includes a 12x12 barn style shed and another attached shed that could be used as a laundry room or storage. Kitchen, bathrooms and flooring need to be finished. Property sold AS IS.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 520 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is HOMESTEAD exempt; Zoned R1MH; Lot is approximately 0.46 acres (cleared, corner lot)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association noted; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Public water and well; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Private and public utility connections
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces south; One-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as double wide manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Additional interior features (other)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-475/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Primary Academy (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 647 students, 90% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 520 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $280k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,623 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 520 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,784
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9640 Bud St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+4%)	12mo	$60,000	$33	78
9530 ED St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-13%)	15mo	$190,000	$126	54
9633 Ray St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,960 (+13%)	7mo	$135,000	$69	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-48,017
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,567
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,137/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,126

Max offer price $273,010

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9723 Tom St Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	17d	1	0.40mi
14420 Pimberton Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,000	$1.15	24d	1	0.74mi
9734 Highland Ridge Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,195	$1.46	24d	1	0.77mi
8826 Medalist Ct Hudson, FL	4.0	2.0	2055	$2,900	$1.41	17d	1	0.98mi
13220 Whaler Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$1,990	$1.27	24d	1	1.02mi
8811 Seeley Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,895	$0.96	17d	1	1.21mi
14945 Potterton Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1972	$2,150	$1.09	4d	1	1.22mi
14709 Shadowwood Blvd Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1568	$1,699	$1.08	4d	1	1.25mi
13642 Dunwoody Ct Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,295	$1.33	16d	1	1.29mi
13013 Sawmill Way Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,790	$1.18	4d	1	1.34mi
13102 Pembrook Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1221	$1,575	$1.29	24d	1	1.38mi
14611 Ivy Chase Ln Hudson, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,450	$1.42	24d	4	1.42mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 520 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 519 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 518 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 517 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 515 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,999 Active 511 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,999 Active 510 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,999 Active 509 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,999 Active 506 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,999 Active 505 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,999 Active 504 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,999 Active 503 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,999 Active 502 DOM
14. 2025-11-21
    price $279,999
15. 2025-10-10
    status Active
16. 2025-06-12
    status Active
17. 2025-05-23
    status Pending
18. 2025-05-12
    price $275,999
19. 2025-01-18
    price $289,999
20. 2024-10-29
    listed $300,000 Active
21. 2019-11-27
    soldstatus $56,000
22. 2019-11-19
    soldstatus $56,000 Sold 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Attention All Handymen and Investors! Great Income Potential and a true fixer upper. This 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom manufactured home is located on an ideal piece of property. Fenced in on a 1/2 acre corner lot that includes a 12x12 barn style shed and another attached shed that could be used as a laundry room or storage. Kitchen, bathrooms and flooring need to be finished. Property sold AS IS.

23. 2019-10-31
    status Pending 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Attention All Handymen and Investors! Great Income Potential and a true fixer upper. This 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom manufactured home is located on an ideal piece of property. Fenced in on a 1/2 acre corner lot that includes a 12x12 barn style shed and another attached shed that could be used as a laundry room or storage. Kitchen, bathrooms and flooring need to be finished. Property sold AS IS.

24. 2019-10-18
    listed $60,000 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Attention All Handymen and Investors! Great Income Potential and a true fixer upper. This 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom manufactured home is located on an ideal piece of property. Fenced in on a 1/2 acre corner lot that includes a 12x12 barn style shed and another attached shed that could be used as a laundry room or storage. Kitchen, bathrooms and flooring need to be finished. Property sold AS IS.

25. 2014-02-06
    soldstatus $28,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This is a cute Doublewide home that needs a little fixing up to look adorable. How would you like to feel like you are in the country surrounded by Hugh Oak trees, yet close to town. You can own this nice home on a corner lot with a approximately 12x12 barn style shed and an attached shed for the laundry room and storage. completely Fenced with circle drive and double gates to open each side. This is an estate and sold as is.

26. 2014-02-06
    soldstatus $28,000

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This is a cute Doublewide home that needs a little fixing up to look adorable. How would you like to feel like you are in the country surrounded by Hugh Oak trees, yet close to town. You can own this nice home on a corner lot with a approximately 12x12 barn style shed and an attached shed for the laundry room and storage. completely Fenced with circle drive and double gates to open each side. This is an estate and sold as is.

27. 2013-12-17
    listed $32,900 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This is a cute Doublewide home that needs a little fixing up to look adorable. How would you like to feel like you are in the country surrounded by Hugh Oak trees, yet close to town. You can own this nice home on a corner lot with a approximately 12x12 barn style shed and an attached shed for the laundry room and storage. completely Fenced with circle drive and double gates to open each side. This is an estate and sold as is.

28. 2013-12-17
    listed $32,900

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This is a cute Doublewide home that needs a little fixing up to look adorable. How would you like to feel like you are in the country surrounded by Hugh Oak trees, yet close to town. You can own this nice home on a corner lot with a approximately 12x12 barn style shed and an attached shed for the laundry room and storage. completely Fenced with circle drive and double gates to open each side. This is an estate and sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,187/yr (+$99/mo · 104.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,137
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,305
• After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+751.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $279,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $275,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $289,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-29 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-19 Sold (MLS) $56,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-18 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-06 Sold (MLS) $28,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2014-02-06 Sold (MLS) $28,000 HCAR
• 2013-12-17 Listed $32,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2013-12-17 Listed $32,900 HCAR

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,137 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.