10971 Carroll Wood Way #1

Sappington, MO 63128

$155,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,074 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,685/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$397
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-677/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-677/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (6.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#34 in MO, #3,057 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindbergh Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #38 of 324 in MO (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elem. School (math 43% / reading 62%, grade C-, #226 of 1,115 statewide, top 21%, 552 students, 10% FRL); Lindbergh Sr. High (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 2,235 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Sappington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?