10971 Carroll Wood Way #1 · Sappington, MO 63128

$155,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,074 sqft · Condo public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1965 $397/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is such a great community located in the desirable Lindbergh School District. 10917 Carroll Wood Way is a 2 bed, 1.5 bath townhome is move-in ready for you. On the main floor you will find new LVP flooring, a large family room, 1/2 bath, kitchen, and dining area. The kitchen features white cabinets, granite counter tops, farm style sink, stainless steel appliances, and dining area with access to the back patio area. Upstairs is where the two bedrooms are located along with a full bathroom. The lower level is partially finished providing another living space that could be a movie/gaming room, home office, or workout area. Just past this space is the laundry room, a utility sink, egress

Key facts

• Farm style sink
• Back patio area
• New lvp flooring

Tags

• NEW LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• FARM STYLE SINK
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BACK PATIO AREA
• PARTIALLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as approximately 1,374 total (estimated); Above-grade finished area reported as approximately 1,074 (public records); Below-grade finished area reported as approximately 300 (estimated)
• HOA & community: Carroll Wood Association; Monthly HOA fee of $397; Association maintains grounds and recreational facilities; Community basketball court and playground

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Ameren electric; Cable available
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Two levels; Private ownership
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (upper level); 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace; Partially finished concrete basement; Ceiling fan(s); Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-677/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (6.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Sappington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#34 in MO, #3,057 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindbergh Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #38 of 324 in MO (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elem. School (math 43% / reading 62%, grade C-, #226 of 1,115 statewide, top 21%, 552 students, 10% FRL); Lindbergh Sr. High (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 2,235 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,036 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-30,085
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-36,353
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63128

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,356/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$397
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $145,036

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10801 Edgecliffe Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	960	$1,850	$1.93	10d	1	0.58mi
9920 Merito Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$1,005	$1.22	7d	4	0.70mi
11015 Golf Crest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	864	$1,970	$2.28	21d	1	0.78mi
10934 Vargas Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	938	$1,849	$1.97	23d	1	0.81mi
9854 Las Vegas Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1026	$2,100	$2.05	7d	1	1.04mi
10939 Brookings Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,885	$1.57	1d	1	1.12mi
11515 Gravois Rd Unit 11468-101 Sappington, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	2d	1	1.18mi
12531 Old Tesson Rd St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	16d	1	1.20mi
4650 E Concord Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	1d	1	1.30mi
9287 Fort Sumter Ln Sappington, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	875	$1,525	$1.74	2d	7	1.32mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $397 · $4,764/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $155,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
4. 2026-05-02
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-04-25
   listed $155,000 Active
6. 2026-04-25
   historical $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,356 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$147/yr (+$12/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,356
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − HOA: −$4,764
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$745
• After-tax cash flow: $68/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindbergh Schools
• NCES district ID: 2918690
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $66,145
• Composite: 42.62/100
• National rank: #3186
• State rank: #38 of 324 in MO

Livability — Sappington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #3057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sappington, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,540
• Household income: $92,359
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.34%
• Current HPI: 211.4603
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Listed $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Coming Soon $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,356 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.