2939 Elmwood Ave

Tonawanda Town, NY 14217

$100,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1944 · MultiFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,888/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $1,349/mo
• Annual: $16,192/yr
• Cap rate: 22.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.83%
• DSCR: 3.57
• 1% rule: 2.89%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $675/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,888/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 727% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exposed plumbing — Exposed plumbing and electrical wiring
• Major: Exposed electrical wiring — Exposed plumbing and electrical wiring
• Major: Exposed framing — Exposed framing