2939 Elmwood Ave · Tonawanda Town, NY 14217

$100,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1944 Poor condition 8,154 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Offer deadline Friday the 27th at 12pm Opportunity awaits at 2939 Elmwood Ave in Tonawanda, NY, a fully gutted duplex ready for its next owner to complete the finishing touches and unlock its full potential. Major structural and mechanical upgrades have already been completed, saving time and expense for investors, flippers, or owner-occupants looking to customize the final build. Significant improvements include a brand-new roof and vinyl siding, vinyl windows, PEX water lines, new drain lines, and new furnaces with ac with updated ductwork already installed. Situated on a large lot, the property offers additional outdoor space and flexibility for parking or future improvements. For inv

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Fully gutted duplex
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• FULLY GUTTED DUPLEX
• MAJOR STRUCTURAL UPGRADES
• NEW ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• VINYL WINDOWS
• PEX WATER LINES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $675/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,888/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 727% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.83%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Kenview Ave	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,620 (+4%)	10mo	$275,000	$170	82
68 Tulane Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,687 (+8%)	11mo	$306,000	$181	63
170 Mayville Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+3%)	3mo	$199,000	$123	62
161 Pullman Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+3%)	17mo	$280,000	$174	59
174 Woodward Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+3%)	17mo	$285,000	$177	59
151 Henderson Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,664 (+7%)	11mo	$280,000	$168	58
171 Pullman Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+3%)	20mo	$220,000	$136	57
175 Mayville Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,674 (+7%)	5mo	$225,000	$134	54
86 Pullman Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+15%)	6mo	$315,000	$176	53
104 Shepard Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,633 (+5%)	8mo	$278,000	$170	52
145 N End Ave	0.32mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+11%)	16mo	$140,000	$81	49
103 Shepard Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+15%)	18mo	$310,000	$173	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $85,190
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.11×
• Total profit: $255,087
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14217

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,888 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,393/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $1,349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,406	-5% $1,378	+0% $1,349	+5% $1,321	+10% $1,293
Rent	-10% $1,121	-5% $1,235	+0% $1,349	+5% $1,463	+10% $1,577
Rate	-1.0pp $1,400	-0.5pp $1,375	base $1,349	+0.5pp $1,323	+1.0pp $1,297

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,888
Total (2 units)			$2,888

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	24d	1	0.40mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	24d	1	0.43mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	11d	1	0.78mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $100,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    status $100,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    status Pending
15. 2026-03-31
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2026-03-18
    listed $100,000 Active
17. 2018-01-29
    soldstatus $425,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,393 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,393 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$4,393
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,772
• − Management: −$2,772
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $15,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,770
• After-tax cash flow: $12,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Gut rehab

This fully gutted duplex requires extensive renovations to bring it up to code and make it move-in ready. Significant improvements include a new roof and vinyl siding, but the interior requires major repairs and updates to the plumbing, electrical, and framing. Potential buyers should be aware of the extensive work required.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed plumbing — Exposed plumbing and electrical wiring
• Major Exposed electrical wiring — Exposed plumbing and electrical wiring
• Major Exposed framing — Exposed framing

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete kitchen and bathroom renovations — Both kitchen and bathroom renovations will significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality
• Both Paint interior walls — Painting interior walls will improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers
• Both Install new flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed plumbing · Exposed plumbing and electrical wiring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed electrical wiring · Exposed plumbing and electrical wiring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed framing · Exposed framing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete kitchen and bathroom renovations — Both kitchen and bathroom renovations will significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Painting interior walls will improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Both Install new flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,471
• Household income: $73,800
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.52%
• Current HPI: 330.7596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.76%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-76.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $100,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,393 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.