3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,322 sqft ·
Built 2021
· Manufactured
· Active
· 80 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,465/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$159
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$728
Net cashflow
$1,582/mo
Annual
$18,986/yr
Cap rate
16.29%
Cash-on-cash
35.69%
DSCR
2.59
1% rule
1.82%
Cash to close
$53,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#141 in CA, #4,900 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living F.
Cypress Elementary (suburban): math 67% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #117 of 1,400 in CA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.2% in Cypress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($130k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— Significant wear and tear
Major: concrete porch
— Visible cracks and wear
Major: interior walls
— Peeling paint
CashFlowRE · CFR-T5SPBQEBA85WSS
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29