9275 Rappahannock Trl

Glen Allen, VA 23005

$349,900F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,224 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,996/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$389
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-648/mo
• Annual: $-7,771/yr
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.93%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-648 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (32.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (43.0% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $200k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#108 in VA, #3,369 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $218k; list at $350k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.