315 S 1 1/2 St

Nederland, TX 77627

$195,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,794/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$427
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-33/mo
• Annual: $-391/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-391/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (8.0% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $179k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Park El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 432 students, 54% FRL); Central Middle (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 721 students, 55% FRL); Nederland H S (math 49% / reading 61%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 1,439 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.6% in Nederland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.