6227 N Litchfield Rd #12

Glendale, AZ 85340

$70,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,137/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $1,205/mo
• Annual: $14,455/yr
• Cap rate: 26.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.75%
• DSCR: 4.28
• 1% rule: 3.05%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Millennium High School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D-, #50 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 2,121 students, 21% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 26.9% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.