6227 N Litchfield Rd #12 · Glendale, AZ 85340

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition Est $80k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained manufactured home in the heart of Litchfield Park! Freshly painted and meticulously cared for, this home offers a functional open layout filled with natural light. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus a newer water heater for added peace of mind. Enjoy a low-maintenance lifestyle with access to a clubhouse, pool, gym, and greenbelt. Lot rent includes trash, recycle, and septic. Small pets allowed. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator convey.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Greenbelt
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• GYM
• GREENBELT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by owner
• HOA & community: Land lease of $725 per month; No association fees; Community pool; Biking/walking path; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Septic (in & connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition and metal roofing with sub-tile ventilation
• Exterior features: On-site storage; Natural desert front; City-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Possible 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; No interior steps; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.9% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Millennium High School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D-, #50 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 2,121 students, 21% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.75%
• DSCR: 4.28
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,872
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6227 N Litchfield Rd #42	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,024 (0%)	6mo	$58,000	$57	93
6227 N Litchfield Rd #4	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,044 (+2%)	9mo	$67,500	$65	85
6227 N Litchfield Rd #37	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-4%)	11mo	$70,000	$71	76
6227 N Litchfield Rd #2	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+6%)	18mo	$85,000	$78	72
6227 N Litchfield Rd #29	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+7%)	13mo	$107,500	$98	69
6227 N Litchfield Rd #43	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+12%)	18mo	$117,000	$102	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $63,111
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $144,649
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85340

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $1,205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,253	-5% $1,229	+0% $1,205	+5% $1,180	+10% $1,156
Rent	-10% $1,036	-5% $1,120	+0% $1,205	+5% $1,289	+10% $1,373
Rate	-1.0pp $1,240	-0.5pp $1,222	base $1,205	+0.5pp $1,186	+1.0pp $1,168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13826 W Keim Dr Litchfield Park, AZ	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,050	$1.57	3d	1	0.16mi
13444 W Rhine Ln Litchfield Park, AZ	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,699	$1.28	17d	1	0.34mi
13621 W Glendale Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1279	$1,999	$1.56	2d	13	0.62mi
6706 N Dysart Rd Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	727	$1,439	$1.98	2d	42	0.87mi
5110 N 129th Ave Litchfield Park, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$2,018	$2.50	2d	8	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $14,185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,404
• After-tax cash flow: $11,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home offers a functional open layout with fresh paint and new water heater, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace carpet in bedrooms — improves comfort and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace carpet in bedrooms — improves comfort and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Fria Union High School District (4289)
• NCES district ID: 0400450
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $64,107
• Composite: 27.92/100
• National rank: #6865
• State rank: #99 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Glendale

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3235

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 294,586
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 40,919
• Household income: $122,323
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 696.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 19% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.29%
• Current HPI: 279.2294
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $70,000 ARMLS