33828 Shaver Springs Rd

Auberry, CA 93602

$223,000B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,432 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,496/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$43
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $481/mo
• Annual: $5,772/yr
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.24%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $62,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $481 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $223k).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#982 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.4% in Auberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.