33828 Shaver Springs Rd · Auberry, CA 93602

$223,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1978 7,501 sqft lot Est $387k · 42% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale in good neighborhood. Nice home backs open space with view to pond. This home is in need of a little TLC, but is ready to move in as is. Large garage, open living/great room, fireplace w/ insert, tile counter tops in kitchen.

Key facts

• 7,501 sq ft lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 164 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $481 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $223k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.4% in Auberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#982 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.24%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $386,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33899 Tocaloma Rd	0.09mi	3/1.8	1,265 (-12%)	12mo	$341,000	$270	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,493
• Equity at exit: $33,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $34,692
• Equity at exit: $19,281

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93602

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,230/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,888

Max offer price $223,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-01-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-27
   historical Pending Accepting Backups
3. 2025-10-03
   price $223,000
4. 2025-09-16
   price $224,000
5. 2025-08-29
   price $225,000
6. 2025-08-15
   listed $229,999 Active
7. 2011-05-06
   soldstatus $160,000 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Short Sale in good neighborhood. Nice home backs open space with view to pond. This home is in need of a little TLC, but is ready to move in as is. Large garage, open living/great room, fireplace w/ insert, tile counter tops in kitchen.

8. 2011-05-06
   soldstatus $160,000

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Short Sale in good neighborhood. Nice home backs open space with view to pond. This home is in need of a little TLC, but is ready to move in as is. Large garage, open living/great room, fireplace w/ insert, tile counter tops in kitchen.

9. 2011-03-31
   historical 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Short Sale in good neighborhood. Nice home backs open space with view to pond. This home is in need of a little TLC, but is ready to move in as is. Large garage, open living/great room, fireplace w/ insert, tile counter tops in kitchen.

10. 2011-01-02
    listed $160,000 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Short Sale in good neighborhood. Nice home backs open space with view to pond. This home is in need of a little TLC, but is ready to move in as is. Large garage, open living/great room, fireplace w/ insert, tile counter tops in kitchen.

11. 2005-06-20
    soldstatus $326,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 67 unhealthy d/yr today · 75 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$2,230
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,397
• − Management: −$2,397
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable income: $2,324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$558
• After-tax cash flow: $5,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Auberry

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #982
• US rank: #24661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auberry, CA
• City population: 3,091
• Population (ZIP): 3,091

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.97%
• Current HPI: 244.699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-31.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2025-10-27 Contingent — FRESNOMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $223,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $224,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $225,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $229,999 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-06 Sold (MLS) $160,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-03-31 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2011-01-02 Listed $160,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2005-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $326,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,230 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.