86 Main St

New York Mills, NY 13417

$299,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,134 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Pending · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-407/mo
• Annual: $-4,888/yr
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.84%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in NY, #2,712 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• New York Mills Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #224 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New York Mills School (math 52% / reading 47%, 546 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 30% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the New York Mills Union Free School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.