18523 Pine Lake Dr #4

Tinley Park, IL 60477

$274,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Built 2002 · Condo · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,420/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$230
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $282/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($282/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (12.0% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#246 in IL, #4,453 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Rich Twp Hsd 227 (suburban): math 5% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #577 of 620 in IL (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Colin Powell Middle Sch (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #592 of 665 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 0% FRL); Rich Township High School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #584 of 693 statewide, top 85%, 2,487 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 107% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $275k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Tinley Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.