18523 Pine Lake Dr #4 · Tinley Park, IL 60477

$274,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Condo public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2002 $230/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptionally lovely 2nd floor condo w/2 bdrm & 2 bths. Beautifully maintained w/many upgrades!! Engineered hdwd flrs, Newer Stove, Refrg,Microwave, HotWaterTank, Double Kit.Sinks, Faucet & CORIAN Counters. Roomy breakfast nook in Kit. overlooks Pond. Vaulted ceilings, Palladium Windows, Huge mastr. Includes STAIR-LIFT. Enjoy 2 hole Putting Green & Gazebo. Near Historic downt. 55+Community(Must be 18+)Attached gar

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Walk-in closet
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS 2ND BEDROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: One mile east of Harlem off 183rd to Pine Lake Drive (Tinley Park); Listing possession: tenant's rights
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $230; HOA covers exterior maintenance, lawn care, trash (scavenger), snow removal, and internet; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), maximum pet weight 30 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Lake Michigan water; Public sewer
• Home design: Attached single property; Townhouse — 2 story; Fee simple ownership with homeowners association
• Construction: Built 21–25 years ago; Construction: vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Adult community; Disability access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (Main level, 16 x 10); Bedroom 2 (Main level, 12 x 10); Additional bedrooms listed
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bedroom has a full bath
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Terrace; Dining room; Family room; Living room; Laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($282/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Tinley Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#246 in IL, #4,453 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Rich Twp Hsd 227 (suburban): math 5% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #577 of 620 in IL (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Colin Powell Middle Sch (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #592 of 665 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 0% FRL); Rich Township High School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #584 of 693 statewide, top 85%, 2,487 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 107% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $275k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $241,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-43,021
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-35,417
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60477

• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,225/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,390

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $101	+0% $23	+5% $-54	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-72	+0% $23	+5% $119	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $93	base $23	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7050 183rd St #411 Tinley Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	0d	1	0.89mi
17871 Argos CT Orland Hills, IL	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,200	$1.78	0d	1	1.08mi
17545 71st Ave Tinley Park, IL	3.0	1.5	1144	$1,800	$1.57	3d	1	1.48mi
17537 70th Ct Tinley Park, IL	3.0	1.5	1170	$3,000	$2.56	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $230 · $2,760/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 691-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $274,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,733 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,507/yr (+$209/mo · 204.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$1,225
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,323
• − Management: −$2,323
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$4,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,047
• After-tax cash flow: $1,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rich Twp Hsd 227
• NCES district ID: 1733420
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $56,056
• Composite: 8.93/100
• National rank: #9885
• State rank: #577 of 620 in IL

Livability — Tinley Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #4453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tinley Park, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 35,976
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 35,976
• Household income: $94,927
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 753.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -272.64%
• Current HPI: 190.7548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+107.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $274,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 2013-01-30 Sold (MLS) $112,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-11 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-12 Price Changed $127,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-10 Listed $132,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-26 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-7.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,225 · -24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.