435 Victory Dr

Park Forest, IL 60466

$169,000B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,183 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,470/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $633/mo
• Annual: $7,598/yr
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.06%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#148 in IL, #2,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rich Twp Hsd 227 (suburban): math 5% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #577 of 620 in IL (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Michelle Obama Sch of Technology (484 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $169k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $2,470/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 900% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.