435 Victory Dr · Park Forest, IL 60466

$169,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,183 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $249k · 32% under $150/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOULD YOU LIKE TO OWN A HOME PLUS A HOME IN PARK FOREST! DOUBLE THE FLOOR PLAN WITH TWO SEPARATE LIVING QUARTERS. MAIN HOME FEATURES 3 BEDS 2.1 BATH WITH A HUGE MASTER BEDROOM. THE OTHER UNIT IN BACK SEPARATE ENTRANCE FEATURES ANOTHER KITCHEN, LIVING RM WITH 1 BED 1 BTH. EXTRA INCOME OR RELATED LIVING. SUBJECT TO LENDER -----

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $150; Association fee covers insurance, lawn care, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; 2-story layout; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Built approximately 21–25 years ago; Not rebuilt or rehabilitated
• Exterior features: Lot less than 1/4 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating area / breakfast bar; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (master plus three additional bedrooms on the second floor)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms, family room, and master bedroom; Vinyl in kitchen, dining room, and living room
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Dining area combined with living room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (approx. 5 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#148 in IL, #2,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Rich Twp Hsd 227 (suburban): math 5% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #577 of 620 in IL (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,470/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 900% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $169k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.06%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,862
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
425 Lakewood Blvd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,900 (-13%)	7mo	$217,000	$114	58
28 W Rocket Cir	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,905 (-13%)	2mo	$140,000	$73	57
4 Waverly Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,283 (+5%)	1mo	$270,000	$118	55
9 Apple Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,937 (-11%)	8mo	$189,900	$98	38
483 Lakewood Blvd	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,918 (-12%)	23mo	$178,000	$93	28
116 Chestnut St	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,903 (-13%)	18mo	$240,000	$126	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,069
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $63,830
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60466

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,668

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $750	-5% $692	+0% $633	+5% $575	+10% $516
Rent	-10% $438	-5% $536	+0% $633	+5% $731	+10% $828
Rate	-1.0pp $718	-0.5pp $676	base $633	+0.5pp $589	+1.0pp $545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Apple Ln Park Forest, IL	3.0	1.0	1541	$2,300	$1.49	13d	1	0.62mi
336 Oakwood St Park Forest, IL	3.0	2.0	2083	$2,800	$1.34	11d	1	0.78mi
111 Nashua St Park Forest, IL	4.0	1.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	25d	1	0.92mi
441 Talala St Park Forest, IL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,500	$1.44	25d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $169,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,371
• − Management: −$2,371
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $5,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $6,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rich Twp Hsd 227
• NCES district ID: 1733420
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $56,056
• Composite: 8.93/100
• National rank: #9885
• State rank: #577 of 620 in IL

Livability — Park Forest

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #2726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Park Forest, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 21,461
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 21,461
• Household income: $61,654
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 900.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.87%
• Current HPI: 219.9692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+35.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $169,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-27 Sold (MLS) $79,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-06 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-12 Price Changed $79,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-04 Price Changed $77,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-23 Price Changed $78,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-10 Price Changed $79,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-25 Price Changed $80,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-01 Price Changed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-20 Price Changed $80,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-24 Price Changed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-16 Price Changed $85,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-04 Price Changed $89,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-26 Price Changed $95,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-20 Price Changed $97,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-13 Price Changed $99,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-07 Price Changed $110,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-31 Price Changed $115,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-25 Price Changed $120,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-13 Listed $125,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $10,017 · -17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.