5 Barton Hill Rd

Mineville, NY 12998

$96,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 855 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,059/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $120/mo
• Annual: $1,441/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $26,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $96k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($664 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#891 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Moriah Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #445 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moriah Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 385 students, 47% FRL); Moriah Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 316 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.