5 Barton Hill Rd · Mineville, NY 12998

$96,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 855 sqft · Townhouse public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1900 4.00 ac lot $112/sqft · 374% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable country living with room to grow! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath half townhouse sits on approximately 4 acres, offering outdoor space, endless potential. Features include spacious layout with gorgeous enclosed Adirondack front porch and beautiful rural surroundings. Perfect for buyers looking to build equity, invest, downsize or enjoy a peaceful getaway with land rarely found at this price point.

Key facts

• Outdoor space
• Rural surroundings
• 6 parking spots

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• RURAL SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Space for 6 vehicles; Off-street paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed front porch; Front porch; Metal and shingle roof; Shed(s); Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (located on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Steam heating
• Interior features: Enclosed front porch (three-season room); 4 total rooms; Exterior-entry, full, unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#891 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Moriah Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #445 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moriah Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 385 students, 47% FRL); Moriah Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 316 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($664 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,120 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $20,272
• List price: $96,000
• Delta: 373.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $59,979
• Equity at exit: $86,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $170,713
• Equity at exit: $186,507

Cash invested: $26,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12998

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,076/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $907

Max offer price $96,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $147	+0% $120	+5% $93	+10% $66
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $78	+0% $120	+5% $162	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $144	base $120	+0.5pp $95	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,000
• Closing costs: $2,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $96,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $96,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $96,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $96,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $96,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $96,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $96,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $96,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $96,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $96,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $96,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $96,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $96,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $96,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $96,000 Active 402-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,076 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,076 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,377
• − Property taxes: −$2,076
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$2,793
• Taxable loss: −$53
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13
• After-tax cash flow: $1,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moriah Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619830
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,940
• Composite: 39.55/100
• National rank: #3937
• State rank: #445 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mineville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #891
• US rank: #17259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 334

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.82%
• Current HPI: 320.0559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $96,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,076 · +24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.