78 Tollgate Rd

Averill Park, NY 12018

$315,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,727/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$605
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,226/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (13.4% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $273k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#101 in NY, #1,641 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Averill Park Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #169 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: West Sand Lake Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 376 students, 18% FRL); Averill Park High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 897 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 64% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Averill Park Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.