78 Tollgate Rd · Averill Park, NY 12018

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1958 9,583 sqft lot Est $334k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic Opportunity! This beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home features a sun-filled open floor plan that's perfect for modern living. The spacious kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, brand-new appliances (refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave), touchfree facet and a generously sized dining area perfect for gatherings. The expansive living room is ideal for entertaining, complete with a charming wood stove. The inviting primary suite includes a refreshed private bath, while the lower level boasts two additional bedrooms and a brand-new full bath. With fresh paint and flooring throughout, a two-car garage, and numerous updates, this home is truly move-in ready. Welcome Home!

Key facts

• Touch-free faucet
• Abundant cabinetry
• Stunning kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED RESIDENCE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• NEWER STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• TOUCH-FREE FAUCET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces; Additional parking for a total of 4 vehicles; Driveway; Garage door opener; Parking under residence
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Exterior lighting; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Bedrooms on first and second levels (total 4 bedrooms implied by room entries)
• Flooring: Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on first level, one on second level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating with baseboard units
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Sliding doors; Finished basement; Living room with wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#101 in NY, #1,641 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Averill Park Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #169 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: West Sand Lake Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 376 students, 18% FRL); Averill Park High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 897 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 64% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Averill Park Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,709 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $334,425
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
78 Tollgate Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,225 (0%)	17mo	$281,000	$229	86
74 Tollgate Rd	0.02mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-7%)	7mo	$300,000	$265	72
18 Fisher Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (+10%)	23mo	$370,000	$274	52
180 Algonquin Beach Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-7%)	19mo	$312,000	$273	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $165,143
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $491,613
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12018

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$473 /mo · $5,681/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,856

Max offer price $296,959

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $315,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,681 · $473/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,681 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$5,681
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,618
• − Management: −$2,618
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Averill Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600016
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,340
• Composite: 56.94/100
• National rank: #1113
• State rank: #169 of 590 in NY

Livability — Averill Park

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Averill Park, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,069

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.43%
• Current HPI: 263.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+301.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $315,000 Global MLS
• 2025-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $281,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-27 Sold (MLS) $281,000 Global MLS
• 2024-12-10 Pending — Global MLS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $250,000 Global MLS
• 2022-09-14 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $109,000 Global MLS
• 2022-08-18 Price Changed $129,000 Global MLS
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $139,000 Global MLS
• 2022-07-25 Listed $149,000 Global MLS
• 2019-05-19 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2018-05-18 Listed $183,500 Global MLS
• 2005-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-16 Sold (MLS) $140,000 Global MLS
• 2005-10-11 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2005-10-03 Listed $149,900 Global MLS
• 2000-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,950 Public Records
• 2000-12-27 Sold (MLS) $65,950 Global MLS
• 2000-10-25 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2000-10-05 Listed $68,000 Global MLS
• 1999-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $78,440 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,681 · -32.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.