7529 Beach Dr

Odessa, MO 64076

$115,200B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,640/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$604
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$6
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $590/mo
• Annual: $7,085/yr
• Cap rate: 12.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.97%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $32,256

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $796 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#144 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Odessa R-VII (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #123 of 324 in MO (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.8% in Odessa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.