7529 Beach Dr · Odessa, MO 64076

$115,200

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1999 0.36 ac lot $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Large lot
• Walk in closets

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• LARGE LOT
• FENCED YARD
• TREED LOT
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• LAUNDRY UTILITY MUD ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.8% in Odessa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#144 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Odessa R-VII (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #123 of 324 in MO (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $796 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $101,376 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.97%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $18,908
• Equity at exit: $17,177

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $64,761
• Equity at exit: $9,960

Cash invested: $32,256 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64076

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$604
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $115,200

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,800
• Closing costs: $3,456
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   historical
3. 2026-03-10
   price $115,200
4. 2026-02-06
   price $134,400
5. 2026-01-24
   status Active
6. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-03
   historical
8. 2025-12-16
   price $147,200
9. 2025-10-30
   listed $160,000 Active
10. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus
11. 2021-11-19
    soldstatus Closed 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

12. 2021-10-19
    status Pending 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

13. 2021-10-14
    price $137,500 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

14. 2021-09-14
    status Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

15. 2021-09-06
    historical 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

16. 2021-08-21
    status Pending 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

17. 2021-08-20
    status Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

18. 2021-08-20
    status Pending 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

19. 2021-08-17
    listed $139,000 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Affordable country home with not much land to maintain. Investor has rehabbed the interior of this doublewide with new carpet, paint, new windows, new kitchen appliances, bath fixtures, new plumbing under the home and new skirting. Great shady fence yard for pets and a view front and back of peaceful meadows. Room to build a garage/shop. 12X14 shed and a second 10X12 metal shed. All of the bedrooms are nice sized. Foundation is strapped down block pillars on concrete runners.

20. 2021-07-26
    soldstatus Closed 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Welcome Home. this home has mature trees that will shade you during the summer. Open Concept with kitchen , dining and living room all open for easy of entertaining. You will love this large lot and one level living.

21. 2021-07-14
    status Pending 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Welcome Home. this home has mature trees that will shade you during the summer. Open Concept with kitchen , dining and living room all open for easy of entertaining. You will love this large lot and one level living.

22. 2021-06-25
    price $69,900 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Welcome Home. this home has mature trees that will shade you during the summer. Open Concept with kitchen , dining and living room all open for easy of entertaining. You will love this large lot and one level living.

23. 2021-05-17
    listed $79,900 Active 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Welcome Home. this home has mature trees that will shade you during the summer. Open Concept with kitchen , dining and living room all open for easy of entertaining. You will love this large lot and one level living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $562 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$555/yr (+$46/mo · 98.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,453
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$576
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$3,351
• Taxable income: $5,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,323
• After-tax cash flow: $5,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2923100
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,736
• Composite: 35.44/100
• National rank: #4932
• State rank: #123 of 324 in MO

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #8250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,236

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Danish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.23%
• Current HPI: 255.8581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+44.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $115,200 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $134,400 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $147,200 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listed $160,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-19 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-19 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-14 Price Changed $137,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-14 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-06 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-21 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-20 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-20 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-17 Listed $139,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-26 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-14 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-25 Price Changed $69,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-17 Listed $79,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $562 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.