3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #4

Corning, CA 96021

$80,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 226 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,399/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $632/mo
• Annual: $7,589/yr
• Cap rate: 15.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.88%
• DSCR: 2.51
• 1% rule: 1.75%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $632 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#417 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities D-.
• Corning Union High (rural): math 12% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #1,151 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Olive View Elementary (math 14% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,313 of 1,571 statewide, top 84%, 546 students, 88% FRL); Maywood Middle (math 24% / reading 36%, grade F, #218 of 498 statewide, top 44%, 434 students, 86% FRL); Corning High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 1,031 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.2% in Corning — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.