3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #4 · Vina, CA 96021

$80,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 224 Days on market

Built 1980 20 ac lot Est $120k · 33% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable 55 and older Woodson Bridge Estates community, this property offers more than just a place to live, it delivers the lifestyle you’ve been dreaming of. Residents enjoy fantastic amenities including a large clubhouse, sparkling in-ground pool, relaxing spa and jacuzzi, all set near the scenic Sacramento River. Once inside, you’ll be welcomed by soaring ceilings, warm wood-paneled walls, an open concept layout, and numerous windows that bathe the space in natural light. The kitchen is designed for convenience with ample wood cabinetry, great counter space, an electric cooktop, and a charming breakfast bar ideal for casual meals. A standout feature of this h

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Relaxing spa
• Large clubhouse

Tags

• LARGE CLUBHOUSE
• IN-GROUND POOL
• RELAXING SPA
• JACUZZI
• SCENIC SACRAMENTO RIVER
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot described as 0-1 unit/acre
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $676.85
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required; Located in Woodson Bridge Estates; Suburban community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (1 space); Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story home; Side entry; Has a view; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Year built per assessor; Assessor-recorded living area
• Exterior features: In-ground community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Dishwasher; Kitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: One-level entry
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Sun room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the home; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $632 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,345 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Corning Union High (rural): math 12% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #1,151 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.88%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,520
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #1	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,416 (-2%)	3mo	$135,000	$95	95
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #28	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	92
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #94	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$120,000	$83	86
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #105	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$128,500	$89	84
3835 GARDINER Fry #82	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$110,000	$76	83
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #5	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	8mo	$122,500	$79	79
3835 GARDINER Fry #102	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+9%)	23mo	$165,000	$105	60
3835 GARDINER FERRY #13 #13	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (+10%)	23mo	$16,000	$10	59
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #89	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	23mo	$95,000	$76	58
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #104	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	22mo	$160,000	$100	58
24895 New Jersey Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	12mo	$549,000	$352	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $27,288
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $75,514
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96021

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $236/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $598

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $678	-5% $655	+0% $632	+5% $610	+10% $587
Rent	-10% $522	-5% $577	+0% $632	+5% $688	+10% $743
Rate	-1.0pp $673	-0.5pp $653	base $632	+0.5pp $612	+1.0pp $591

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 206 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 205 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 204 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    status Active
19. 2026-03-20
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-02-18
    price $80,000
21. 2026-01-28
    price $84,000
22. 2025-11-07
    listed $85,000 Active
23. 2025-10-23
    historical
24. 2025-08-07
    status Active
25. 2025-07-22
    status Pending Sale
26. 2024-11-05
    price $85,000
27. 2024-09-13
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $236 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 157.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$236
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,654
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,597
• After-tax cash flow: $5,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Corning Union High
• NCES district ID: 0609810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,060
• Composite: 25.18/100
• National rank: #12925
• State rank: #1151 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Vina

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1345
• US rank: #26820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,076

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.81%
• Current HPI: 272.9407
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $80,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $84,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $85,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-07-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $85,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $100,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $236 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.