222 Barrera Rd

San Carlos II, TX 78043

$120,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,120 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,561/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $423/mo
• Annual: $5,079/yr
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.12%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#1,612 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• United ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #568 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Judith Zaffirini El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 636 students, 83% FRL); Antonio Gonzalez Middle (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 88% FRL); United South H S (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 3,243 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1,448 units permitted in Webb County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Webb County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.