222 Barrera Rd · San Carlos II, TX 78043

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1994 0.50 ac lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Half acre property located outside city limits with great potential. Features a 3-bedroom cinder block main home with custom ceiling designs and a separate building that could be used for storage, workshop, or additional living space. Property was never fully completed and needs major repairs and updates. 608 sqft on second building. Sold AS-IS. Ideal for investors or buyers ready to renovate and bring their vision to life. Come see the potential for yourself.

Key facts

• Separate building
• Half acre property
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE PROPERTY
• CINDER BLOCK MAIN HOME
• CUSTOM CEILING DESIGNS
• SEPARATE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#1,612 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• United ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #568 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Judith Zaffirini El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 636 students, 83% FRL); Antonio Gonzalez Middle (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 88% FRL); United South H S (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 3,243 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1,448 units permitted in Webb County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Webb County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.12%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,523
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $41,310
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78043

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,571/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $491	-5% $457	+0% $423	+5% $389	+10% $355
Rent	-10% $300	-5% $362	+0% $423	+5% $485	+10% $547
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $454	base $423	+0.5pp $392	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $120,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 79 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 78 DOM
19. 2026-04-21
    price $130,000 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Half acre property located outside city limits with great potential. Features a 3-bedroom cinder block main home with custom ceiling designs and a separate building that could be used for storage, workshop, or additional living space. Property was never fully completed and needs major repairs and updates. 608 sqft on second building. Sold AS-IS. Ideal for investors or buyers ready to renovate and bring their vision to life. Come see the potential for yourself.

20. 2026-03-13
    listed $132,000 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Half acre property located outside city limits with great potential. Features a 3-bedroom cinder block main home with custom ceiling designs and a separate building that could be used for storage, workshop, or additional living space. Property was never fully completed and needs major repairs and updates. 608 sqft on second building. Sold AS-IS. Ideal for investors or buyers ready to renovate and bring their vision to life. Come see the potential for yourself.

21. 2018-12-26
    soldstatus
22. 1997-08-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,571 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$625/yr (+$52/mo · 39.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,571
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$805
• After-tax cash flow: $4,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: United ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843650
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,780
• Composite: 28.02/100
• National rank: #6848
• State rank: #568 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Carlos II

• Score: 39/100
• State rank: #1612
• US rank: #27381

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Carlos II, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,044

Population outlook (Webb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 301,387 people
• By 2030: 316,307 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 345,636 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 370,647 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 413,907 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 416,458 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 58% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 92%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Webb

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.5% · R 50.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: 43.4pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+23.3 2016: D+51.6 2012: D+54.0 2008: D+43.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.11%
• Current HPI: 163.8209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $130,000 LAOR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $132,000 LAOR
• 2018-12-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,571 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.