3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
950 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Manufactured
· Active
· 79 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,171/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$117
HOA
−$1,100
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$456
Net cashflow
$131/mo
Annual
$1,578/yr
Cap rate
8.55%
Cash-on-cash
8.05%
DSCR
1.36
1% rule
3.10%
Cash to close
$19,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#11 in UT, #457 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+.
Davis District (suburban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #28 of 80 in UT (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Mountain View School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #161 of 585 statewide, top 29%, 781 students, 21% FRL); North Layton Jr High (math 39% / reading 40%, grade F, #75 of 138 statewide, top 56%, 1,009 students, 30% FRL); Northridge High (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #106 of 171 statewide, top 62%, 1,954 students, 23% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.
Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,461 units permitted in Davis County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
Davis County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
14 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-T7T8VME2EVPEXV
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29