33 Rosita Way

South Oroville, CA 95966

$222,500D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,060 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,903/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,167
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $136/mo
• Annual: $1,631/yr
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.62%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $62,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $222k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#943 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oakdale Heights Elementary (311 students, 88% FRL); Ishi Hills Middle (302 students, 65% FRL); Las Plumas High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,287 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 376 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.