33 Rosita Way · South Oroville, CA 95966

$222,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1963 7,405 sqft lot Est $250k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: 220 Volt electric service; Public water; Public sewer; Public district irrigation
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1963; One story
• Construction: Composition roof; Detached construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; No private pool or spa; Does not allow horses

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry cabinet; Tile countertops; Dishwasher; Microwave; Free standing electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Linoleum; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tubs with shower over; Windows in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Additional/other heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free standing electric range; Living room fireplace; Pantry cabinet; Tile counters; Breakfast nook and dining bar; Dining space in kitchen; Main level living areas include bedrooms, living room, full bath(s), garage, and kitchen; One-story layout
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#943 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oakdale Heights Elementary (311 students, 88% FRL); Ishi Hills Middle (302 students, 65% FRL); Las Plumas High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,287 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 376 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,304 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.62%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Rosita Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,060 (0%)	1mo	$222,500	$210	97
12 Rosita Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,060 (0%)	3mo	$240,000	$226	89
44 Rosita Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	9mo	$299,000	$277	84
2243 Jan Ct	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+6%)	4mo	$275,000	$246	82
5640 Farley St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,023 (-4%)	3mo	$235,000	$230	73
2298 Via Canela	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+0%)	11mo	$285,000	$268	60
4535 Lincoln Blvd	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-0%)	8mo	$212,500	$201	57
2345 Via Canela	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (+0%)	11mo	$251,500	$236	54
2335 Via Canela	0.62mi	3/1.0	954 (-10%)	0mo	$310,000	$325	52
4080 Faunce Way	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-6%)	3mo	$185,000	$185	52
4936 Lower Wyandotte	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	952 (-10%)	1mo	$310,000	$326	46
3263 Oro Bangor	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (-12%)	3mo	$120,000	$129	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-27,475
• Equity at exit: $33,175

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,087
• Equity at exit: $19,238

Cash invested: $62,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,167
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,296/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,731

Max offer price $222,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $199	+0% $136	+5% $73	+10% $10
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $61	+0% $136	+5% $211	+10% $286
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $192	base $136	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,625
• Closing costs: $6,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4325 Lower Wyandotte Rd Oroville, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,000	$1.74	15d	1	0.90mi
1945 Fort Wayne St Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	876	$1,950	$2.23	15d	1	0.99mi
2127 B St Oroville, CA	3.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	15d	1	1.17mi
3250 Spencer Ave Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	15d	1	1.20mi
2850 Myers St Oroville, CA	3.0	2.0	1095	$2,200	$2.01	15d	1	1.43mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,296 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,691 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$395/yr (+$33/mo · 30.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,463
• − Property taxes: −$1,296
• − Insurance: −$1,112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$6,473
• Taxable loss: −$2,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$519
• After-tax cash flow: $2,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — South Oroville

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #24347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Oroville, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,296 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.