912 Grand Canyon Dr

Valrico, FL 33594

$279,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-119/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-119/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#442 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nelson Elementary School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 719 students, 54% FRL); Mulrennan Middle School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,185 students, 47% FRL); Durant High School (math 43% / reading 44%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,589 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $279k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.