1384 Highway 23 Unit 3

Ogilvie, MN 56358

$169,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,075/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-153/mo
• Annual: $-1,834/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (36.7% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#656 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime D-.
• Ogilvie Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #252 of 301 in MN (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ogilvie Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #579 of 857 statewide, top 69%, 287 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 37% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Kanabec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kanabec County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $115k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?