1384 Highway 23 Unit 3 · Kanabec, MN 56358

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1996 4.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Don’t miss this opportunity to own an affordable, well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath single-wide mobile home with a charming enclosed 8x19 three-season porch. Set on 4 private acres just off State Highway 23 on the west edge of Ogilvie, this property offers a peaceful, tucked-away setting surrounded by woods. Enjoy a beautiful open-water pond and a spacious, park-like yard featuring a fire ring, garden space, and plenty of room for outdoor entertaining—all with scenic pond views. The property has a warm, “up-north” feel that makes it especially inviting. The nearby town of Ogilvie provides convenient amenities, including local dining spots, a gas station/general stor

Key facts

• Private acres
• Fire ring
• Open-water pond

Tags

• ENCLOSED THREE-SEASON PORCH
• PRIVATE ACRES
• OPEN-WATER POND
• PARK-LIKE YARD
• FIRE RING
• GARDEN SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Drilled private well; Private septic (mound system, compliant, tank with drainage field); Propane fuel; 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Electric service provided by East Central Energy
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Single-story; Entry level: Main; Road frontage on paved streets / state road; public maintained road
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Roof older than 8 years; Foundation dimensions approximately 14 x 56
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Enclosed porch and open porch; Storage shed; Irregular lot with medium tree coverage; Shared pond waterfront (approximately 210 feet)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Main floor primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom; Main floor laundry; Enclosed porch / three-season porch; No interior stairs
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ogilvie Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #252 of 301 in MN (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ogilvie Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #579 of 857 statewide, top 69%, 287 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 37% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Kanabec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kanabec County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $115k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,522 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $82,708
• Equity at exit: $153,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $251,039
• Equity at exit: $330,078

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56358

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $486/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $142,900

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-105	+0% $-153	+5% $-201	+10% $-249
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-195	+0% $-153	+5% $-110	+10% $-68
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-110	base $-153	+0.5pp $-197	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $169,900 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 31 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Contingent - Inspection 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $169,900 Active 1214-char remark
15. 2022-08-26
    soldstatus $115,000
16. 2021-03-29
    soldstatus $75,000
17. 1997-10-28
    soldstatus $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $486 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,194 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 145.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$486
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,032
• − Management: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,957
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogilvie Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2723970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,420
• Composite: 30.39/100
• National rank: #6251
• State rank: #252 of 301 in MN

Livability — Kanabec

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,172

Population outlook (Kanabec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,998 people
• By 2030: 14,363 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 12,841 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 11,299 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 8,458 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 6,283 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Kanabec

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.1% · R 70.4% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+37.9 2016: R+35.7 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 302.8175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+582.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $24,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $486 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.