2501 Candlecrest Cir

Manhattan, KS 66503

$125,000B-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1990 · Townhouse · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,937/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $410/mo
• Annual: $4,922/yr
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.06%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in KS, #979 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Manhattan-Ogden (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 169 in KS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frank V Bergman Elem (math 46% / reading 52%, grade D, #194 of 684 statewide, top 28%, 536 students, 40% FRL); Susan B Anthony Middle School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #25 of 219 statewide, top 12%, 747 students, 30% FRL); Manhattan High School West/East Campus (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #45 of 327 statewide, top 14%, 1,954 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 132 units permitted in Riley County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riley County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $125k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.