2501 Candlecrest Cir · Manhattan, KS 66503

$125,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Townhouse public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1990 1,400 sqft lot $250/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Front door parking
• 5th bedroom
• Main floor laundry

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• FRONT DOOR PARKING
• BACK PATIO
• 5TH BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $250 monthly fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: No fencing; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in KS, #979 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Manhattan-Ogden (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 169 in KS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 132 units permitted in Riley County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riley County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $125k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.06%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,017
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $39,478
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66503

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,949/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,418

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $446	+0% $410	+5% $375	+10% $339
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $334	+0% $410	+5% $487	+10% $563
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $442	base $410	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
18. 2026-01-16
    listed $125,000 Active
19. 2023-10-29
    historical $995
20. 2023-10-05
    listed $995
21. 1991-12-01
    soldstatus $66,900
22. 1991-12-01
    soldstatus $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,949 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,949 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,949
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$795
• After-tax cash flow: $4,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manhattan-Ogden
• NCES district ID: 2009180
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,001
• Composite: 35.97/100
• National rank: #4795
• State rank: #26 of 169 in KS

Livability — Manhattan

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #979

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manhattan, KS
• County: Riley County · 62,662 people
• City population: 60,966
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• Population (ZIP): 17,273
• Household income: $97,846
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 421.0

Population outlook (Riley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,656 people
• By 2030: 89,075 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 99,100 · +18.5%
• By 2050: 109,146 · +30.5%
• By 2075: 134,178 · +60.4%
• By 2100: 153,653 · +83.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riley

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 47.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.8pp toward D · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+3.2 2016: R+4.5 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -214.01%
• Current HPI: 141.8067
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+86.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $125,000 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-10-29 Rental Removed $995 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-05 Listed for Rent $995 APPFOLIO
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,949 · -7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.