29797 E Trancas Dr

Cathedral City, CA 92234

$419,950D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 262 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,466/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$636
• HOA: −$1,176
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$938
• Net cashflow: $-487/mo
• Annual: $-5,841/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $117,586

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-487 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (20.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $420k).
• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $334k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#344 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities D-.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 530 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 19 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $163k; list at $420k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,466/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 1682% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.